Rt. 281 into Confluence

I would have loved to do a live stream today, but the cards just didn’t fall into place.  Sorry.

However, we did get several pictures from the flooding event across the Alleghenies.  I’ll share a couple of them for you on here.

As of 9:00 PM on Saturday, rain totals look like this:

Altoona – 1.5″
State College – 1.8″
Johnstown – 1.1″
DuBois – 0.6″
Clearfield – 0.8″
Indiana – 1.1″

The storm is still expected to bring more rain (albeit lighter) through the day on Sunday and into Monday before coming to an end.

Rivers are expected to crests in flood stage across the region early Sunday morning.  Some rivers will be into moderate or even major flood stage by the time all is said and done.

At the time of this post, rivers currently at flood or action stage include the Conemaugh River at Seward and the Youghiogheny River at Confluence.  The Frankstown Branch of the Juniata and the Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg are also at action or flood stage and expected to rise overnight.  We’ll get a better idea and updated information after 10 PM at the AHPS River Forecasts website (which is currently down due to server issues).

In the meantime, you can get more river information by clicking on either of these links.  One has information for rivers in the area covered by NWS Pittsburgh and one is for NWS State College.  http://bit.ly/dwCyDi and http://bit.ly/bsyWgW

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It’s hard to believe that it’s been 17 years since the Blizzard of ‘93.  I was a kid (10 years old) in Pittsburgh at the time and can remember making snow tunnels and going out with my dad as he plowed driveways.  It didn’t seem like that big of a deal, even though we were off school for a while because of it.

Enter 2010.  We have a snowstorm on February 5th and 6th that drops 24-36 inches of snow across parts of our region.  Now, I’m driving and have a job.  I have to shovel all of the snow off of my driveway. 

Now I understand the big deal!

The Blizzard of ‘93 happened on March 12-14 (give or take) and dropped a lot of snow with blowing winds across record-cold temperatures.  It also caused many deaths up and down the east coast.

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All signs are pointing to a heavy rain event for the Alleghenies, starting later Friday into Saturday.

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There’s a few changes in the thinking from last night, but the overall theme remains the same. The steadiest and heaviest of the rain looks to fall on Saturday. Right now, amounts appear to be on the order of an inch to an inch and a half.

If we see rainfall amounts over 1.5 inches, river flooding is likely. Even with rainfall amounts of an inch in a 24 hour period, some stream and small river flooding is possible.

I’ll fine tune the amounts and timing of the rain later in the week.

It’s hard to believe that we’re already talking tornadoes… but we are.  Yesterday, there was severe weather in Oklahoma that caused a tornado that took out several houses. 

I found this video at MSNBC.com.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

There’s still quite a bit of snow on the ground in the Laurel Highlands, and that has the potential to pose some problems later this week.

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Check out the snowmap below, courtesy of the NWS in State College. Take note of the tremendous snowfall at Laurel Summit in Somerset County:

We’ll get a nice break this weekend and early next week, but winter is not over yet. We still have a high potential for more storms through the end of the month.

For the southern half of Pennsylvania, February was an exceptional month as far as snowfall was concerned. Not just here in the Alleghenies, but also eastward to Harrisburg and Philly.

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It started last weekend when I came in to the Severe Weather Center and had a phone message from a lady asking about a storm on March 7th.  (Keep in mind, this was February 20th!)  I didn’t hear much about it again through the week until Saturday and Sunday when people started to ask me about it again.

Where is this all coming from?  Really, it stems from one guy… Lester Moyer.

I’m not going to speak ill of the guy because I don’t know him.

Here’s what I do know after reading several articles about him…

1) He bases his forecast on the sky, wind patterns, and moon cycles.

2) He did, apparently, accurately predict that there was going to be two storms in February.

3) He predicted below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through the winter.

4) He claims to be right 85-95% of the time.

5) He’s predicting a monumental storm for March 7th.

Let’s examine the above one-by-one…

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I’ve recorded a couple of streams over the past couple of days.  Take a look at the roads as I went to Richland and back this afternoon for the 5:00 PM live shots.

Free TV : Ustream

Everything is pretty much still on track tonight, as low pressure continues to move in an unorthodox way into New England.

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Here’s an initial look at the snowfall potential across the area. Keep in mind, this map covers snowfall over a period from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. More snow is expected in the Laurel Highlands on Saturday.

A few selected areas(through Saturday afternoon): Johnstown 12 to 15″, Altoona 4 to 6″, State College 5 to 7″, DuBois 6 to 9″, Somerset 14 to 18″, Indiana 8 to 12″, Bedford 1 to 3″.

There will also be extremely gusty winds late Thursday through Friday, gusting at times up to 50 mph. This will obviously create quite a bit of blowing and drifting, especially in the areas that pick up over 6″ of snow. This will make it very difficult to travel, and also measure the snow!

I’ll have another update tomorrow evening tweaking amounts and winds.

There’s still a few differences in “model land” with regard to timing and placement of low pressure, but there’s enough agreement now to make some first guesses.

There’s a tremendous amount of moisture and lift moving westward into the state from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. The heaviest snow (over 8 inches) will be focused in the Laurel Highlands, with lighter amounts (over 5 inches) northward along the 219 corridor.

East of I-99 snowfall totals will be much lighter (less than 5 inches) from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

We will also see wind gusts up to 50mph from Thursday night into Friday afternoon, causing quite a bit of blowing and drifting snow. The winds will be gusty over all of the Alleghenies, with the highest gusts south of I-80. This storm will feature the worst winds we have seen so far this winter.

I’ll update this post tomorrow night with specific snow amounts and timeframes.

Science is big.  Weather is huge!

There’s no better place to prove that this weekend than in Pittsburgh at the Carnegie Science Center.  That’s where they’re hosting StormFest in partnership with California University of Pennsylvania.

I’ll be heading out there on Friday to get a glimpse of everything they have going on.  From the sounds of this article, it might be worth planning a trip on Saturday if you’re interested in the weather.

Here’s a link to more information: Click Here

Look for an in-depth report coming Friday.

UPDATE: DUE TO THE WEATHER, I WAS NOT ABLE TO ATTEND DUE TO THE STORM.  I’M SORRY!

A viewer sent this in today and I just wanted to share it with all of you…  Thanks Ralph!

10. You had to Google “Sunlight.”

 9. In your nightmares, you’re being chased by evil snow plows.

 8. You’re wife caught you sitting on your motorcycle and saying “Vroom! Vrooom!”

 7. You’ve given up getting mad at the borough plows for blocking the driveway.

 6. You’ve developed a latent hostility towards Florida and California.

 5. 30 degrees feels warm.

 4. You think snowflakes are actually space invaders.

 3. You dug through 58 inches of snow to remind yourself what grass looks like.

 2. You went out to the garage and fired up the lawn mower “just for old time’s sake.”

 And the number one way you know you’re done with winter…

 Your new name for the WJAC-TV Severe Weather Team is…

 (Drum Roll… click on more for the rest of #1!)

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Hey everyone.  It’s 46 hours of students on their feet.  It’s THON!

Here’s the live stream from THON!

I made the trek to Altoona today to talk to the Kindergarten classes at Juniata Gap Elementary School.  They were a great group of kids and had a lot of good questions.  We learned about clouds and what it takes to juggle all the different kinds of weather.

Click into the post to see the video!

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Here’s the latest snowfall totals from across the Alleghenies. The first is for this month (so far), and the second is for the 2009-2010 season (so far).

The last time Johnstown hit 100″ of snow in a season was 2002-2003. Before that, you have to go back to 1995-1996. The winter of 1995-1996 was one of the snowiest winters on record, with many locations in Cambria and Somerset counties picking up 150″+ for the season!

Our Presidents’ Day snowstorm wasn’t a huge storm, but the snow did come down hard at times. Many of us have received 2 to 4 inches through late Monday evening. Accumulating snow will continue through early Tuesday morning in Centre and Cameron counties, with another 1 to 2 inches likely. West and southwest of there is where the bigger snow totals will show up.

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So with about one and a half months left to go in winter (give or take), it’s time for an update as to how much snow we’ve seen and how it compared to the averages.

Click into the post to see how much snow has fallen across the Alleghenies.

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