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Another day, another winter storm for the Alleghenies. This beast won’t be as intense as the last, but we’re still going to get a significant snowfall from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

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A storm on February 5th and 6th dropped 2 to 3 feet of snow in areas across the Alleghenies.  Traffic came to a standstill but it allowed people to get out with their cameras.  Lucky for us, they sent some in to us.

Click the link for a gallery of 40 pictures we’ve uploaded to our Facebook account.

You can also check out the pictures coming in from Ralph Couey of Somerset.  Click here.

I’m hoping to post some pictures and a little more Monday, but here’s something to whet your appetite until then.  These are the NWS snow totals from their Public Information Statement.   They are arranged by county with the highest snow totals listed first.

Click into this post to see the NWS numbers…

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Our current winter storm continues to track further north with each passing model run. The center of low pressure is now expected to reach a little further north on the Virgina coastline. This will push the heavy snows further north as well.

The 10″ line will run from Marion Center to Mahaffey to Warriors Mark. 18″ is now likely up to Johnstown, Martinsburg to Shirleysburg. Up to 2 feet will fall south of the Turnpike in Somerset, Bedford and Fulton counties.

Farther north, the 6″ line will run from DuBois to Centre Hall.

Stay safe everyone! Temperatures behind the storm will drop to near zero tomorrow night in some areas.

Brrr!

It’s just about here, so that means it’s time to take a stab at some snow totals. First though, we still have some disagreement amongst the models tonight. The difference lies in the handling of a trough of low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. The further south this feature is, the lighter the snow will be. Right now, the consensus leads me to a very snowy forecast for areas south of I-80.

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We need your help, Alleghenies.  We need you to leave a comment on this post with your snow totals, your name, and where you measured.  Take a look inside this post for how to measure snow effectively.

You can also share them with us via Twitter.  Just send a reply to @wjac_weather.

Thanks in advance for all your help.  We’ll keep you updated through the storm.

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Well, here we are – two days away from our storm. And there’s still many questions about the outcome, but some have been answered.

First of all, this will be very similar to the storm we had on December 19th. That’s not to say the “same”, but similar. We have a similar storm track, but this upcoming storm is a little stronger. Take a look at what we got on the 19th of December:

I would imagine our snow total map will look similar when we get to this Sunday morning. Like I said though, totals could be higher (a bit further north) due to this upcoming storm having more moisture with it.

So the big question remains….”How much for my backyard”? I’ll make a snowmap tomorrow night when things are a bit  more clear.

At this point, it’s just that. A potential.

Global computer modelling ranges from a deep snowstorm up into the middle of Pennsylvania, to a light accumulation south of Route 22. What is different from this past weekend’s storm is that we don’t have a pressing, arctic airmass in place. That helped to force the storm south of us.

We will be plenty cold for snow, but the big question is “how much”. Right now, I’d favor a more northerly solution for this weekend, bringing in at least some accumulating snow. Perhaps as far north as the storm during the weekend before Christmas. That’s not to say we’re going to see the exact same results and accumulations, but I’d lean toward accumulating snow getting as far north as Route 322.

So we’ll see how things play out over the next few days. The potential is there for some snow, but the potential is also there for no snow! One thing is certain for the days after the storm, and that is another arctic outbreak. Temperatures look to get very cold by Sunday and Monday behind the coastal storm.

I’ll update my thoughts on this all week long, so check back in!

Apogee vs. Perigee - Copyright © 2001-2010, Anthony Ayiomamitis.

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Everyone always wants to be on camera.  Just watch where you’re going!

It’s almost Friday, so I figured I’d help you get through the last part of your week!

edit: I tried to embed the video right here, but it wouldn’t work.  Here’s the link.  It’s definitely worth watching!

There’s been some talk this week about a snowstorm for the weekend. Well, that’s all but been canceled.

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Low pressure moved to our west on Sunday, drawing up plenty of mild and moist air. Another area of low pressure formed along the coast last night and enhanced our rainfall across the Alleghenies. Many of the smaller streams and creeks across the Northern Alleghenies came out of their banks, resulting in minor flooding. Here’s a look at how much rain we picked up since Sunday afternoon:

Colder air will continue to move into the Alleghenies tonight, along with a few snow showers. A few inches are likely from late tonight through Tuesday night along and west of I-99.

A more significant storm is possible by the weekend. I’ll go into details about that on Tuesday.

Here’s a look at how much snow we’ve picked up so far, compared to the seasonal average:

The latest short-range model guidance continues to shift this storm to our south, taking most of the precipitation with it. It looks like areas south of route 22 and west of route 522 will see the most, with locations getting all snow picking up 3 to 4 inches.

That’s the other tricky part of the forecast. Model soundings indicate that some sleet and freezing rain could mix with the snow, so that would effectively cut down on accumulations. There’s still plenty of uncertainty with this next storm, so I’ll update again tomorrow afternoon.

Looking further down the road, temperatures will spike into the 40s on Sunday and Monday. Both days, however, will have some rain. We’ll have to watch out for the potential of heavy downpours on Sunday. After this, a change in the pattern looks to begin again. Temperatures will cool down to seasonably cold readings for most of next week, and the pattern will remain active. More on that in the next couple of days.

All eyes are now on the end of the week, and our potential storm.

The GFS model brings a healthy slug of moisture our way Thursday night through Friday morning, with some spots picking up over 6 inches of snow. A few areas could see some sleet and freezing rain too. The NAM model on the other hand, tracks the storm further south and keeps the southern half of the state under-the-gun for wintry precipitation.

So which one do we trust? Neither one, yet! The GFS has been rather consistent with the storm, and we’re now just getting into the NAM’s time range to pick up on the storm’s impacts for our area. By the time Wednesday evening rolls around, everything will become much less uncertain.

Stay tuned!

Our next significant weather maker looks to come in the form of some rain, and also a bit of snow.

Everything looks to get going Sunday morning or afternoon, and temperatures aloft will be getting colder as the day wears on. This is going to be a very tough forecast, as some of the highest hilltops could be mainly wet snow and pick up several inches. On the other hand, everybody could be just warm enough for plain rain until the end, when most spots will see a little wet snow.

So the bottom line here, we just don’t know yet. At least I don’t. Temperatures are going to be so borderline, that 1 degree will be the difference between some light slush and 6 inches of heavy, wet snow. Stay tuned for the latest forecasts on this storm as we head into the weekend.

On a side note, our thaw for next week looks to be postponed. A big, cold high will build in from eastern Canada early next week and keep us seasonably chilly. So instead of mid 40s, look for mid 30s and some snow later in the week.

Just going to be one of those years…..

We’ve been cold since about Thanksgiving, but the last two weeks were brutal. Take a look at this:

The shows when the last time we reached 33°. In Johnstown, for example, it was December 31 and it reached 33° exactly. Before that, it was December 27 and it was in the upper 30s. So, for this current cold streak, Johnstown went 13 days without getting about freezing. Altoona went 12. State College, however, hit 33° today snapping the streak at 10 days.

It looks like everyone will get above 32° tomorrow, and we’ll be above freezing for highs for the most part through next week. The exception could be Sunday and Monday as a storm system moves through. I’ll go over the details on that tomorrow!

It’s a little early to be talking about severe thunderstorms, but the NWS recently made a change to their severe thunderstorm guidelines and it impacts everybody.

For years, the definition of a severe thunderstorm has been:

…a storm with hail equal to or greater than 3/4″ in diameter or convective wind gusts equal to or greater than 58 mph.

Now, they have bumped up the hail criteria to 1″ (or quarter-sized).

Severe Hail Criteria Changed

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There’s been some talk about a weekend storm for the past few days now. Well, not much has really changed in model world as far as a solution. We go from a storm moving well off to our south and out to sea, to a storm riding so far north and west that it brings in enough warm air to see something other than snow.

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