There’s a few changes in the thinking from last night, but the overall theme remains the same. The steadiest and heaviest of the rain looks to fall on Saturday. Right now, amounts appear to be on the order of an inch to an inch and a half.

If we see rainfall amounts over 1.5 inches, river flooding is likely. Even with rainfall amounts of an inch in a 24 hour period, some stream and small river flooding is possible.

I’ll fine tune the amounts and timing of the rain later in the week.

It’s hard to believe that we’re already talking tornadoes… but we are.  Yesterday, there was severe weather in Oklahoma that caused a tornado that took out several houses. 

I found this video at MSNBC.com.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

There’s still quite a bit of snow on the ground in the Laurel Highlands, and that has the potential to pose some problems later this week.

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Check out the snowmap below, courtesy of the NWS in State College. Take note of the tremendous snowfall at Laurel Summit in Somerset County:

We’ll get a nice break this weekend and early next week, but winter is not over yet. We still have a high potential for more storms through the end of the month.

For the southern half of Pennsylvania, February was an exceptional month as far as snowfall was concerned. Not just here in the Alleghenies, but also eastward to Harrisburg and Philly.

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It started last weekend when I came in to the Severe Weather Center and had a phone message from a lady asking about a storm on March 7th.  (Keep in mind, this was February 20th!)  I didn’t hear much about it again through the week until Saturday and Sunday when people started to ask me about it again.

Where is this all coming from?  Really, it stems from one guy… Lester Moyer.

I’m not going to speak ill of the guy because I don’t know him.

Here’s what I do know after reading several articles about him…

1) He bases his forecast on the sky, wind patterns, and moon cycles.

2) He did, apparently, accurately predict that there was going to be two storms in February.

3) He predicted below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through the winter.

4) He claims to be right 85-95% of the time.

5) He’s predicting a monumental storm for March 7th.

Let’s examine the above one-by-one…

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I’ve recorded a couple of streams over the past couple of days.  Take a look at the roads as I went to Richland and back this afternoon for the 5:00 PM live shots.

Free TV : Ustream

Everything is pretty much still on track tonight, as low pressure continues to move in an unorthodox way into New England.

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Here’s an initial look at the snowfall potential across the area. Keep in mind, this map covers snowfall over a period from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. More snow is expected in the Laurel Highlands on Saturday.

A few selected areas(through Saturday afternoon): Johnstown 12 to 15″, Altoona 4 to 6″, State College 5 to 7″, DuBois 6 to 9″, Somerset 14 to 18″, Indiana 8 to 12″, Bedford 1 to 3″.

There will also be extremely gusty winds late Thursday through Friday, gusting at times up to 50 mph. This will obviously create quite a bit of blowing and drifting, especially in the areas that pick up over 6″ of snow. This will make it very difficult to travel, and also measure the snow!

I’ll have another update tomorrow evening tweaking amounts and winds.

There’s still a few differences in “model land” with regard to timing and placement of low pressure, but there’s enough agreement now to make some first guesses.

There’s a tremendous amount of moisture and lift moving westward into the state from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. The heaviest snow (over 8 inches) will be focused in the Laurel Highlands, with lighter amounts (over 5 inches) northward along the 219 corridor.

East of I-99 snowfall totals will be much lighter (less than 5 inches) from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

We will also see wind gusts up to 50mph from Thursday night into Friday afternoon, causing quite a bit of blowing and drifting snow. The winds will be gusty over all of the Alleghenies, with the highest gusts south of I-80. This storm will feature the worst winds we have seen so far this winter.

I’ll update this post tomorrow night with specific snow amounts and timeframes.

Science is big.  Weather is huge!

There’s no better place to prove that this weekend than in Pittsburgh at the Carnegie Science Center.  That’s where they’re hosting StormFest in partnership with California University of Pennsylvania.

I’ll be heading out there on Friday to get a glimpse of everything they have going on.  From the sounds of this article, it might be worth planning a trip on Saturday if you’re interested in the weather.

Here’s a link to more information: Click Here

Look for an in-depth report coming Friday.

UPDATE: DUE TO THE WEATHER, I WAS NOT ABLE TO ATTEND DUE TO THE STORM.  I’M SORRY!

A viewer sent this in today and I just wanted to share it with all of you…  Thanks Ralph!

10. You had to Google “Sunlight.”

 9. In your nightmares, you’re being chased by evil snow plows.

 8. You’re wife caught you sitting on your motorcycle and saying “Vroom! Vrooom!”

 7. You’ve given up getting mad at the borough plows for blocking the driveway.

 6. You’ve developed a latent hostility towards Florida and California.

 5. 30 degrees feels warm.

 4. You think snowflakes are actually space invaders.

 3. You dug through 58 inches of snow to remind yourself what grass looks like.

 2. You went out to the garage and fired up the lawn mower “just for old time’s sake.”

 And the number one way you know you’re done with winter…

 Your new name for the WJAC-TV Severe Weather Team is…

 (Drum Roll… click on more for the rest of #1!)

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Hey everyone.  It’s 46 hours of students on their feet.  It’s THON!

Here’s the live stream from THON!

I made the trek to Altoona today to talk to the Kindergarten classes at Juniata Gap Elementary School.  They were a great group of kids and had a lot of good questions.  We learned about clouds and what it takes to juggle all the different kinds of weather.

Click into the post to see the video!

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Here’s the latest snowfall totals from across the Alleghenies. The first is for this month (so far), and the second is for the 2009-2010 season (so far).

The last time Johnstown hit 100″ of snow in a season was 2002-2003. Before that, you have to go back to 1995-1996. The winter of 1995-1996 was one of the snowiest winters on record, with many locations in Cambria and Somerset counties picking up 150″+ for the season!

Our Presidents’ Day snowstorm wasn’t a huge storm, but the snow did come down hard at times. Many of us have received 2 to 4 inches through late Monday evening. Accumulating snow will continue through early Tuesday morning in Centre and Cameron counties, with another 1 to 2 inches likely. West and southwest of there is where the bigger snow totals will show up.

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So with about one and a half months left to go in winter (give or take), it’s time for an update as to how much snow we’ve seen and how it compared to the averages.

Click into the post to see how much snow has fallen across the Alleghenies.

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I know this is a little out of our viewing area, but a lot of these events impacted the Alleghenies, too.

NWS in Pittsburgh has listed the top 10 weather events for 2000 through 2009.  I have to agree with the biggest weather event, as it was a major disaster in my hometown, as well.  The only good that came from all the flooding is the fact that we ended up getting a McDonald’s in our little town.

Here’s half the list… To read more, click the link at the end to be taken to the NWS page.

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Pennsylvania – check

Alabama – check

Kansas – check

Colorado – check

Oregon – check

Arizona – check

Hawaii… … … – yup, check!

On February 12th (Friday), it was confirmed that all 50 states had at least some snow on the ground.  This is a remarkable event and statisticians aren’t sure if this has happened before (in recorded history).

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Hey everyone.  Here’s a quick update about the snow coming for Monday and Tuesday…

Read on for when to expect the snow and for a snow map of how much to expect in your backyard.

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