I posted an update on the potential for severe weather last night before I left.  Now, here’s an update on today’s storm potential.

The Storm Prediction Center, like yesterday, has us under a ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather.  Our best bets will come into the afternoon.  Once we get onto the day of the event, the SPC breaks the risks down into percent chances for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds.  Here’s a look at those graphics.

Overall Outlook - Slight Risk

Damaging Wind Outlook - 30%

Tornado Threat - 5%

Severe Hail Threat - 15%

(Read More)

After a quiet weekend, the weather is changing into the coming week.  Here’s a quick look at a couple of graphics that illustrate the timeframe of the passing of the cold front.  The front will likely bring gusty winds and hail.

Here’s the first graphic showing the available energy in the atmosphere at each hour tomorrow.  The actual name is called CAPE or Convectively Available Potential Energy.  The higher the CAPE, the bigger the potential for storms.

CAPE (Convectively Available Potential Energy)

Notice the higher values come between 2:30 PM and 5:00 PM and then another spike with what appears to be the actual passage of the front at 7:00 PM or so.  (Read More)