There’s been plenty of talk about La Nina coming back, but that’s just one of several factors that goes into our Wintercast. This year’s hurricane season, [...]]]> All of a sudden it’s that time of year again. Hard to believe that another summer has come and gone. And now it’s time for the cold-weather season.

There’s been plenty of talk about La Nina coming back, but that’s just one of several factors that goes into our Wintercast. This year’s hurricane season, current snowcover to our north and much more all factor in to the final forecast. The forecast is pretty much done, but it won’t air until November 7. But we can talk about some of the early highlights…

It looks as though we should have another period of back and forth weather for the middle and latter part of this month, with warm days and some really chilly ones. November will likely feature more of the same ups and downs, most likely until mid-month. After that, we may go straight into winter.

More details coming November 7!

When you see a title like that, instantly we think of the weather. And the weather IS going to change this week. But that’s not the change I’m talking about.

WJAC is launching a brand new website shortly. It’s much more user-friendly and is also a good bit faster. Plus it looks [...]]]> Hey Everyone!

When you see a title like that, instantly we think of the weather. And the weather IS going to change this week. But that’s not the change I’m talking about.

WJAC is launching a brand new website shortly. It’s much more user-friendly and is also a good bit faster. Plus it looks pretty darn good, too!

Also changing is this blog and the way our weather spotters report their information. There will be a new web address for the blog, and the new site will also be the home for your spotter reports.

Keep checking back in over the next several days for updates on when the new site will be up and running, and also on how to send in your weather spotter data!

A quick note about our cold, miserable weather we’ve had recently…it’s going to change soon! Sunshine is set to return for the middle of the week and continue into the weekend. Temperatures will also start to warm up…hitting the 70s by the weekend!

I’ll post again later this week about the new site!

Another upper level low is expected to move overhead this weekend, and strength as time goes on. A surface low will also form along the Atlantic coast, [...]]]> As we turn the page to October tomorrow, we’re going to see some big changes in our weather. One thing that won’t change, however, is more rain.

Another upper level low is expected to move overhead this weekend, and strength as time goes on. A surface low will also form along the Atlantic coast, helping to pump moisture in from the east. Most areas will see all rain this weekend, and plenty of it. The southern half of the state should end up with about 1 inch by Sunday evening.

In the Laurel Highlands, mainly above 2,200′, some wet snow will mix with the rain Saturday morning and in a more widespread fashion Saturday night and Sunday. In fact, we’re going to be very close to changing to all wet snow for a time Saturday night above 2,500′.

The situation will need to be monitored closely tomorrow night, especially in Cambria and Somerset counties. A changeover to wet snow could potentially cling to trees and power lines, creating the potential for some power outages. Again, this is primarily for areas above 2,500′.

The good news…. we’re going to warm up and dry out next week!

It officially started yesterday (Friday) at 5:05 AM. Â Today was the first full day of fall.

We’ll start seeing the leaves change soon!

Synopsis: La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.

La Niña conditions returned in August 2011 due to the strengthening of negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. [...]]]> Here’s the latest from NOAA:

Synopsis: La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.

La Niña conditions returned in August 2011 due to the strengthening of negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. With the exception of the far westernmost Niño-4 region, all of the latest weekly Niño index values were –0.5^oC or less. Also supporting the return of La Niña conditions was the strengthening of the below-average subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, in response to increased upwelling and further shoaling of the thermocline across the eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific continued to exhibit La Niña characteristics, but remained weaker and less canonical than the wintertime atmospheric patterns. For example, convection continued to be suppressed near the Date Line, but remained south of the equator, while convection was only weakly enhanced near Papua New Guinea. In addition, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the return of La Niña conditions.

Over the last several months many models have predicted increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Nino-3.4 region during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. However, the majority of models continue to predict ENSO-neutral conditions for this period. The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) has performed quite well over the past several months capturing the recent decrease in SST anomalies. The better model performance, combined with the historical tendency for significant La Niña episodes (as in 2010-11) to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes, leads to increased confidence that La Niña will persist into the winter. While it is not yet clear what the ultimate strength of this La Niña will be, La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with La Niña are expected to remain weak during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, and to generally strengthen during the late fall and winter. During September-November 2011, there is evidence that La Niña favors an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the mid-section of the country, and an increased chance of above-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest.

Ok… so that’s a national view of what’s expected over the next few months. With La Nina coming back, does that mean we’ll see another winter with plenty of snow and cold like last year? Absolutely not! La Nina is just one of several factors that goes into a winter forecast. I’m putting a few things together right now, and I hope to have a “First Look” at what’s coming our way by the end of the month or the beginning of October.

Our official WinterCast will be out in November. Stay tuned!

The line above is from the video game ‘Portal’ and I used it in the e-mail I sent to my coworkers. I really feel it applies here, as well.  I owe so much of [...]]]> “This was a triumph.  I’m making a note here… huge success.  It’s hard to overstate my satisfaction.”

The line above is from the video game ‘Portal’ and I used it in the e-mail I sent to my coworkers. I really feel it applies here, as well.  I owe so much of my success from my six years at WJAC to you, the viewers.  I came to WJAC in 2005 and had a really hard time in the beginning because I didn’t have a lot of interaction.  I quickly found a way to combat that… social media.

It started with the Severe Weather Team Blog and quickly grew to Twitter and Facebook and even live web streams via Ustream.tv.  This is when I really started to feel a special connection with all of you.  Not only did you welcome me into your living room every night, but you talked with me as if I was a member of the family.  Some people questioned my reliance on social media to connect with you, but I truly believe that it is what made this the ‘huge success’ as I quoted above.  Not only did you get your watches, warnings, and forecasts, but you got to see a personal side of me and I got to see a personal side of you… so much so that some of you shared your most upsetting, personal moments.  It’s these connections that build your trust in me as a meteorologist.

I came into this just out of college and was a nervous wreck my first day on the air.  Just last night, I commented to Corey, my weather intern, that I wasn’t sure when I had more butterflies… my first day or my last day.  You don’t realize how hard it is to say goodbye until you have to do it.  Then, when you realize that you’re saying goodbye to ‘millions across the Alleghenies,’ it gets even harder.  I made it through it, though.

Again, I just want to thank everyone for the outpouring of support throughout the years and in the past 24 hours after my announcement to leave WJAC for Weather Central in Madison, Wisconsin.  I’m going to do something else that I think I will absolutely love.  I’m going to be a trainer, traveling across the country teaching people how to use the weather systems and make awesome graphics.  This is an exceptional opportunity and while I’m young and without roots, I figured I should take a shot and see the country.  I’m excited to get started on September 26th.

Now it’s time to take the batteries out of the microphone and turn off the studio lights as this chapter of my life comes to an end.  I am hoping to continue to contribute to the weather blog from time to time and even comment on the Facebook page.  I’m in the process of uploading my final show, but for now, I’ll leave you with a simple line and a short video message.

Stay classy, (insert your city name here)!

Update 12:08 Wednesday: This is my final weather and my on-air goodbye.  Thanks again, everyone!

Autumn will make itself known next week, however, with several days in the 60s and some rain. Right now, flooding doesn’t look to be a concern….but [...]]]> Temperatures this afternoon soared into the 80s and 90s, plus the humidity is very high for September. Take a look at the late afternoon heat index temps:

Autumn will make itself known next week, however, with several days in the 60s and some rain. Right now, flooding doesn’t look to be a concern….but several inches of rain is possible from Sunday night through Thursday. I’ll post some ideas about that on Labor Day.

Have a good holiday!

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE [...]]]> Short post tonight, everybody.  I just saw this on someone else’s site and wanted to share it with you.  This is what the National Weather Service in New Orleans, LA put out as a special weather statement a day before Katrina hit.  It’s chilling.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Today was the first day for my intern, Corey, and we were thinking of a weather trivia question for the 6 PM news. We wanted to do something with hurricanes and he came up with the idea of asking something about hurricane name retirement. I liked it.

We looked up [...]]]>

Photo Source: NOAA

Today was the first day for my intern, Corey, and we were thinking of a weather trivia question for the 6 PM news.  We wanted to do something with hurricanes and he came up with the idea of asking something about hurricane name retirement.  I liked it.

We looked up a website with retired hurricane names and started thinking of a trivia question.  We thought Irene would end up being retired so we started looking at which letter has been retired the most.  (It’s ‘C’ by the way.)  I then started looking at the I-named storms and found something interesting.  In the last 10 years, 6 out of those 10 I-named storms were retired.  Those were Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Igor.  Add this year, and that’s 7 of 11!

Here’s a couple more stats I found from the website (which I’ll link to at the end of this post)…

• To retire a hurricane name, “a storm [needs to be] so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity.”
• There have been 75 retired storm names since 1954.  #25 was Anita in 1977.  #50 was Keith in 2000.  #75 was Tomas in 2010.
• Irene will likely be the first retired storm of 2011.  (Although I could be wrong.)
• The year with the most retired names was 2005.  Those were Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma.
• There were 18 years since 1954 that didn’t have a storm name retired.  The latest being 2009.
• The last retired name, alphabetically, is Wilma from 2005.
• The letter with the most retirement is C.  There have been 9 C-named storms retired.

Want to see the entire list of retired storm names?  Check them out and the rest of the website by clicking here.

Source: NOAA/National Hurricane Center