Blind Squirrels and 40 More Inches of Snow

It started last weekend when I came in to the Severe Weather Center and had a phone message from a lady asking about a storm on March 7th.  (Keep in mind, this was February 20th!)  I didn’t hear much about it again through the week until Saturday and Sunday when people started to ask me about it again.

Where is this all coming from?  Really, it stems from one guy… Lester Moyer.

I’m not going to speak ill of the guy because I don’t know him.

Here’s what I do know after reading several articles about him…

1) He bases his forecast on the sky, wind patterns, and moon cycles.

2) He did, apparently, accurately predict that there was going to be two storms in February.

3) He predicted below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through the winter.

4) He claims to be right 85-95% of the time.

5) He’s predicting a monumental storm for March 7th.

Let’s examine the above one-by-one…

1) He bases his forecast on the sky, wind patterns, and moon cycles.

I’m sorry.  I’m all about technology.  The computer models aren’t perfect, but they do a heck of a job in predicting the weather.  I’m even willing to admit that the longer-range models are starting to do a better job.  Our winter forecast is the proof of that.

I’m sure using the wind patterns and sky are good for short-term forecasting, I can’t buy into it as a long-term forecasting tool.

2) He did, apparently, accurately predict that there was going to be two storms in February.

So did we!  While we didn’t do it months in advance, we were able to predict how much snow was going to fall a couple of days before the event.  The prediction of a big storm in the beginning of February isn’t something you could have planned around so the fact that he called for it really isn’t worthwhile.  It’s more important to be accurate in the short-term than in the long-term.  We predicted an above-average snowfall for the month of February.

3. He predicted below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for the winter.

I don’t think that anyone would believe this to be a below-average precipitation winter.  Plus, the temperatures have been below-average for much of the winter.  The warmest month was November.  Since then, we’ve really been in the deep freeze.

4. He claims to be right 85-95% of the time.

I don’t have a way to verify this, unfortunately.  I’ll go back to the fact that I stated above.  I would not make my plans around a long-term forecast.  There’s no scientific way to accurately predict what the weather will be weeks, months from now.  I do know that the temperature will rise as we head through March.  By April and May, it’ll be even warmer.  Once we get to October, we could be looking at some snow if it gets cold enough, quick enough and there’s enough moisture in the air.  (I bet I’ll be right!)

5. He’s predicting a monumental snowstorm for March 7th.

I get to use a pretty picture for this one.  What you see below is a picture of the GFS model for that day.  It shows high pressure and no major storms in sight.

The National Weather Service is in agreement with regards to the forecast.  They are calling for “fair and mainly dry/seasonal weather … as a large high pressure system builds southeast from the plains into the southeast.”

As a matter of fact, all of the sources that I’ve found are calling for either sunshine or partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 40s.  Based on the models, this doesn’t look like it will change much, either.

So, the moral of my story is to take long-term forecasts that offer specific dates with a grain of salt.  While a blind squirrel may find a nut or two from time to time, these kinds of forecasts almost always tend to lead to one.  This isn’t to say that we won’t see another storm.  Heck, the models may start pointing to something on the 9th, 10th, or 11th for all we know.  (I’m not saying that this will happen!)

All I’m saying is that we should place more emphasis on the short-term and less on the long-term forecasts.

…these thoughts are my own and do not necessarily represent those of WJAC-TV, its advertisers, or employees.