Hello everyone. I’m a new contributing writer to the Severe Weather Team Blog. I attend Penn State-University Park, studying Meteorology and Mathematics. I’ve been a weather geek since about the second grade, with the Blizzard of ’96 being my first fond memory of “storm tracking” (which back then, for me, consisted of watching The Weather Channel and seeing a huge green mass heading toward Pittsburgh on the local radar). When time permits, I’ll be posting my experience as a Penn State Meteorology student and thoughts for impending large-scale (say widespread heavy rain and/or snow) events and severe weather outbreaks.
If you have a question about the activities/courseload of a Meteorology student, just leave a comment under one of my posts. I’d be happy to answer your questions.
Looking into the long-term (as there isn’t much “excitement” in the short- and medium-terms), it appears that we’re really going to be turning up the heat as we get into early next week. My favorite computer model for the day 4-7 period, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), shows a nice “heat ridge” or “heat dome” over much of the eastern 2/3 of the Lower 48 beginning on Sunday and continuing through about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. The GFS (Global Forecasting System, also called the “American model”) shows a very similar situation. The temperatures that these two computer models are predicting in the Sunday – Wednesday timeframe are approaching the 20-22°C range at a pressure level of 850 mb over the Alleghenies. What this means at the surface is that the valley locations in the WJAC viewing area may see temperatures reach the 90-92°F mark early next week. The higher elevations traditionally have a harder time getting to 90°F, so I wouldn’t make that call yet. Whatever the exact temperature, it appears that a period of above-normal temperatures is in store for early next week. Additionally, we should see an area of high pressure at the surface slide eastward from the Southeast to the Western Atlantic Ocean during the period, which should open the gates to high dewpoints. If you haven’t been to the pool yet (like me), maybe this is the time to do it!
I hope to post more about the threat of thunderstorms soon, but there just doesn’t appear to be a significant threat in the next week.